8 XXX : keyholdercaptions

I wrote a program to simulate this. With 100000 simulations, and a max lockup of 100 years possible ~ The first 10 Games in a row took 1559 days. ~ There is a 75.21% chance of being locked longer than 4 days There is a 54.91% chance of being locked longer than 10 days There is a 31.12% chance of being locked longer than 30 days There is a 21.60% chance of being locked longer than 60 days There is a 13.30% chance of being locked longer than 150 days There is a 10.19% chance of being locked longer than 250 days There is a 8.35% chance of being locked longer than 1 year There is a 3.63% chance of being locked longer than 5 years There is a 2.54% chance of being locked longer than 10 years There is a .85% chance of being locked longer than 100 years ~ If you limit the max lockup to 1 year, the average days locked up is 60 days edit: redid the math. I assumed you started with three marbles but it says 3 white marbles. Math above fixed